Pandemic projections suggest masks could save 33,000 lives

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has added mask-on and mask-off options to its computer-based projections for the course of the coronavirus pandemic — and estimates that 33,000 lives could be saved in the U.S. between now and October if masks are required.

• The projection released today anticipates that the cumulative COVID-19 death toll would hit 179,106 in the U.S. by Oct. 1 under current conditions. That figure represents a reduction from last week’s estimate. But when the computer model is tweaked to assume that 95% of the U.S. population wears masks, the computer model would reduce the anticipated death toll even more, to 146,047.
• As explained in a Twitter thread, both of those models assume that social-distancing restrictions would be reimposed if the COVID-19 death rate reaches eight per million. If restrictions are eased without being reimposed under any conditions, the model suggests the death toll would hit 181,015 on Oct. 1.
• A rival computer model, developed by data scientist Youyang Gu, projects 184,162 U.S. deaths by Oct. 1. Johns Hopkins University’s authoritative COVID-19 dashboard currently shows a cumulative death toll of nearly 122,000 for the U.S., and nearly 480,000 for the entire world.